Tuesday, January 24, 2006 - Daily Update
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MARKETS
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Cropp’s Dairy Situation and Outlook
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USDA’s report on December milk production shows December production for the U.S. was estimated at 3.9% higher than a year ago, the result of 0.5% more milk cows and milk per cow up 3.3%. This puts total estimated milk production for the year at 176.5 billion pounds, 3.3% more than 2004 production. The nation’s cow herd averaged 9,034,000 head for the year, compared to 9,010,000 for 2004, an increase of 0.3%. But, the main factor for the increase in milk production was the relatively strong increase in milk per cow of 3.1% for an average of 19,536 pounds. Annual increases in milk per cow for the previous two years were less than 1%.
Source: University of Wisconsin/ Bob Cropp, Jan. 19, 2006 Source URL: http://www.aae.wisc.edu/future/OUTLOOK/cropp_Jan_06.pdf |
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| 3.
Fonterra Wields Global Dairy Price Power
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Evidence of just how much influence the world’s largest dairy exporter wields can be shown by recent world dairy prices.
The influence of New Zealand’s Fonterra Cooperative, the world’s biggest dairy exporter and the company responsible for 95 percent of New Zealand’s dairy output, will be shown when the cooperative announces its production forecast to May tomorrow. One economist said that output of butter, cheese and milk powder hasn’t been overly large and that has helped save prices from tumbling further than they already have this month.
Source: Bloomberg/ Gavin Evans, Jan. 23, 2006 Source URL: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=aLnLR6C82lWI&refer=australia |
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| 5.
Is the Soybean Price Drop Done?
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Soybean prices moved sharply higher in December, but gave up much of the gain in the first three weeks of January. A number of factors will influence price direction over the next several weeks.
March 2006 soybean futures traded to a low of $5.53 in late November 2005 and rallied to a high of $6.33 on January 4, 2005. November 2006 futures moved from a low of $5.755 to a high of $6.485 during the same time period. Finally, the average cash price of soybeans in central Illinois reached a low of $5.15 in early October 2005, increased to $5.75 by mid-November, declined to $5.40 by the end of November, and rallied to a high of $6.05 on January 4, 2006. The sharp increase in prices from late November to early January came without an obvious fundamental reason. The pace of exports during that period was well below the projected rate for the year, the pace of soybean meal consumption was below the projected rate, soybean oil stocks were growing, and projections of stocks at the end of the current marketing year were increasing. Dryness in parts of Argentina was the one supportive fundamental factor. Much of the price strength was attributed to aggressive speculative buying.
Source: Farmdoc/ University of Illinois/ Darrel Good, Jan. 23, 2006 Source URL: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/012306.html |
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PRODUCTION
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| 6.
Holstein-Friesians, Feed System & Conception
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Three strains of Holstein-Friesian (HF): high production North American (HP), high durability North American (HD) and New Zealand (NZ) cows were assigned, within strain, to one of three pasture-based feeding systems: (1) the Moorepark (control) system (MP), (2) a high concentrate system (HC), (3) a high stocking rate system (HS).
These results indicate that while conception rate to first service differed between strains of HF cow, this was not associated with differences in the onset and pattern of luteal activity post partum.
Source: The effect of strain of Holstein-Friesian cow and feeding system on postpartum ovarian function, animal production and conception rate to first service. Theriogenology 63 (3): 950-971, 2005. Horan, B.; Mee, J.F.; OConnor, P.; Rath, A.; et al. |
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Relationship of Yield, Udder Measurements
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The effects of udder and teat measurements on milk yield in Brown Swiss Cows were studied.
In conclusion, teat and udder measurements and mammary type scores significantly affected milk yield.
Source: Relationships between milk yield and udder measurements in Brown Swiss Cows. Turkish Journal of Veterinary & Animal Sciences 29 (1): 75-81, 2005. Tilki, M.; Inal, S.; Colak, M.; Garip, M. |
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| 8.
Input Outlook for 2006 Crop Production
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Crop production input prices have increased relentlessly during 2005 as fuel and fertilizer price increases have caused already small profit margins to shrink. Unfortunately, 2006 promises more of the same as fuel and fertilizer prices continue to climb. Although these input prices are causing margins to shrink, it is imperative that farmers plan with the best possible information available. The outlook numbers laid out in this article can be used a starting point in creating budgets for 2006. Outlook information presented here was developed with data from the Energy Information Administration, USDA, university research, futures markets and retail sector surveys.
Source: Ohio State University/ Ohio Ag Manager/ Barry Ward, January 2006 Source URL: http://ohioagmanager.osu.edu/news/archive/2006/1-06b.php#6 |
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| 9.
Economist’s Advice: Go Easy on Debt Load
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After presenting an agricultural economic outlook, Abner Womack, University of Missouri economist, had words of caution for farmers at a dinner meeting at the Saline County Fairgrounds Tuesday night.
"You will have to manage your farms more carefully than ever before," said the co-director of the MU Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) in Columbia.
"Be extremely careful with debt, if you want to stay in business.”
Source: University of Missouri/ News Release/ Duane Dailey, Jan. 18, 2006 Source URL: http://agebb.missouri.edu/news/queries/showcur.idc?story_num=3603&iln=837 |
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OTHER STORIES
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| 10.
Australia: Dairy Co. Denies Paying Iraq Kickbacks
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Dairy producers in Victoria unknowingly gave more than $600,000 to Saddam Hussein’s government. But a royal commission looking into the matter said it is limited to investigate only the three Australian companies named by the United Nations as having made almost $300 million in illegal payments.
A fourth company, Arab Australian Co. for Dairy Products, based in Jordan, will escape questioning.
Source: Herald Sun/ Mark Dunn, Jan. 19, 2006 Source URL: http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,17865341%255E2862,00.html |
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