An E. coli outbreak blamed on raw milk now has Washington state lawmakers looking to close a loophole in state and federal law that allowed producers to skirt the law covering dairies selling raw milk.

Two bills proposed this week would continue to allow dairies to sell raw milk, but producers could not avoid health inspections by saying they sell cow shares and collect the milk for the owners. Similar bills were introduced in the state House and Senate.

Source: The Daily News/ Don Jenkins, Jan. 12, 2006
Source URL: http://www.tdn.com/articles/2006/01/12/area_news/news08.txt

FLUID MILK:  U.S. milk production is generally trending higher. Increased Class I usage is reducing surplus supply availability. Class I demand appears to be best in the Southeast where seasonal residents have returned for the winter. First of the month activity and increased demand from schools are also factors in improved bottling activity. As a result, movement of milk into Class II and III is reduced. Cheese manufacturers are also reducing their intakes of NDM, thereby limiting the use of cream in cheese manufacture. Fluid cream markets continue to trend weak. Cream supplies are heavy and most burdensome in the coastal areas of the U.S. As a result, increased movement of cream is noted into the Midwest. While some ice cream operations are able to pick up additional loads of cream, other Midwest buyers are turning down loads. Cream prices are lower in response to decreases in the CME AA butter price and reduced multiples. Condensed skim offerings are increasing and the market is reported as weak.

Source: USDA, Jan. 13, 2006

Cheddar Cheese prices received for US 40 pound Blocks averaged $1.39 per pound for the week ending January 7. The price per pound decreased 3.6 cents from the previous week. The price for US 500 pound Barrels adjusted to 38 percent moisture averaged $1.38 per pound, down 3.2 cents from the previous week.

Butter prices received for 25 kilogram and 68 pound boxes meeting USDA Grade AA standards averaged $1.33 per pound for the week ending January 7. The U.S. price per pound increased 1.2 cents from the previous week.

Source: USDA/ NASS, Jan. 13, 2006
Source URL: http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/dppr0206.txt

Milk supply and use forecasts for 2005 and 2006 are little changed from last month. Whey and butter price forecasts are changed fractionally from last month, but the Class III and Class IV milk price forecasts are unchanged. The all milk price forecast for 2006 is raised slightly to $13.40 to $14.20 per cwt.

Source: USDA/ ERS, Jan. 12, 2006
Source URL: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/waobr/wasde-
bb/2006/wasde430.txt

Corn stocks in all positions on December 1, 2005 totaled 9.81 billion bushels, up 4 percent from December 1, 2004. Of the total stocks, 6.33 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 3 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.49 billion bushels, are up 5 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2005 indicated disappearance is 3.41 billion bushels, compared with 3.31 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2005 totaled 2.50 billion bushels, up 9 percent from December 1, 2004. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.35 billion bushels, up 3 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.16 billion bushels, are up 15 percent from last December. Indicated disappearance for September - November 2005 totaled 840 million bushels, down 10 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Source: USDA/ NASS, Jan. 12, 2006
Source URL: http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/grst0106.txt

Hay Stocks on Farms:  Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 105 million tons on December 1, 2005, down 8 percent from a year ago. Disappearance of hay from May 2005 - December 2005 totaled 73.3 million tons, compared to 69.7 million tons for the same period a year ago.

Compared to December 1, 2004, hay stocks decreased in most of the Corn Belt and southern Great Plains States.

Source: USDA/ NASS, Jan. 12, 2006
Source URL: http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/crop0106.txt

Corn for grain production is estimated at 11.1 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the November forecast but down 6 percent from the 11.8 billion bushels produced in 2004. The average U.S. grain yield is estimated at 147.9 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from the November forecast and down 12.5 bushels from 2004. The 2005 production and yield estimates are the second largest on record, behind last year. Area harvested for grain, at 75.1 million acres, is up 2 percent from 2004.

Soybean production in 2005 totaled 3.09 billion bushels, the second largest U.S. soybean crop on record. This is up 1 percent from the November forecast but 1 percent below the record-setting 2004 crop. The average yield per acre is estimated at a record high 43.3 bushels, 0.6 bushel above the November forecast and1.1 bushels above the 2004 final yield. Harvested area is down 4 percent from 2004, to 71.4 million acres.

Source: USDA/ NASS, Jan. 12, 2006
Source URL: http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/cropan06.txt

According to USDA’s January report, the U.S. soybean export forecast was decreased by 1.9 MMT for the second straight month to 25.9 MMT down 4.1 MMT from last year. This decline in U.S. exports is the result of record exports this fall from South America, primarily Brazil. Brazilian soybean exports from Sept – Dec 2005 are up 2.3 MMT, this includes a 1 MMT increase to China and 785,000 MT to the EU. Strong exports from Brazil to China and the EU have adversely affected U.S. exports, causing the U.S. market share to decline significantly in these markets.

Source: USDA/ FAS, January 2006
Source URL: http://www.fas.usda.gov/oilseeds/circular/2006/06-01/FULL06JAN.pdf

China’s corn production for 2005/06 is estimated at a record 134.0 million tons, up 4.0 million from last month and up 3.7 million from last year. Area was revised upward this month to a record 26.2 million hectares, up 0.8 million from a year ago. The Chinese government offered various tax incentives and subsidies in 2004 and 2005 to encourage farmers to increase total grain area, and farmers responded positively. Large corn area increases were reported in Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces, while lower prices for cotton led to a shift from cotton to corn on the North China Plain. The estimated yield of 5.1 tons per hectare is nearly equal to last year’s excellent yield but below the record set in 1998/99. These revisions are based on recently-released data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and other sources. Few provincial estimates have been announced, although agricultural officials in Jilin (a major corn province) reported a corn crop of 19.0 million tons, up nearly 1.0 million from last year.

Source: USDA/ FAS, Jan. 12, 2006
Source URL: http://www.fas.usda.gov/wap/circular/2006/06-01/Wap%2001-06.pdf

The 2005 annual summary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) report Crop Production concludes that soybean output this year totaled 3,086 million bushels. Based on the shortfall in U.S. shipments to the present, the 2005/06 forecast of soybean exports was cut from 1,020 million to 950 million bushels. USDA forecasts 2005/06 ending stocks at 505 million bushels, which would be the largest carryout of the last 20 years. This month’s forecast range for the 2005/06 national average price was raised from $5.00-$5.70 to $5.10-$5.80 per bushel.

Source: USDA/ ERS, Jan. 13, 2006
Source URL: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/field/ocs-bb/2006/ocs06at.pdf

U.S. agricultural exports fell by about 2 percent from October to November, while imports rose by about 5 percent. Year-to-date exports, at $57.4 billion, are $1.7 billion higher than the same period in 2004. Imports are $4.8 billion higher at $53.9 billion. While still maintaining a trade surplus, that surplus has shrunk from $6.6 billion for the first 11 months of calendar year 2004 to $3.5 billion for the same period in 2005.

Most of the year-to-date rise in export value is related to livestock.

Source: USDA/ ERS, Jan. 13, 2006
Source URL: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/trade/fau-bb/text/2006/fau109.pdf

After a third year of strong production and large stocks, Australia’s grain exports are expected to surge. For wheat, total supply is forecast at a record level (the result of both large carry-in stocks and a bigger harvest), and marketing year exports are consequently forecast to grow by nearly 2 million tons. Stocks could continue to rise, however, because weaker global demand and reduced buying from key markets such as China and Iraq will likely limit export growth.

Source: USDA/ FAS, January 2006
Source URL: http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/circular/2006/01-06/graintoc.htm

For the week wheat and soybean bids were lower, while corn and sorghum was mix. The USDA report seen Thursday lend support to wheat late in the week but not enough to overcome the losses seen early in the week. Wheat ending stocks for the 2005-2006 season came in at 542 million bushels as compared to trade estimates of 526 million bushels and 530 million bushels last month. Global wheat ending stocks were reported at 144.7 million tonnes as compared to 143.35 million tonnes last month. The quarterly stock reports for December 1st wheat stocks came in at 1.43 billion bushels as compared to trade estimates of 1.419 billion bushels. Winter wheat seedings came in at 41.367 million acres as compared to trade estimates of 42.386 million acres and 40.3 million last year. Weekly export sales came in at 342,000 tonnes.

Source: USDA/ AMS, Jan. 13, 2006
Source URL: http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/SJ_GR851.txt

Cow slaughter saw an increase in numbers this week, partially because of the drought conditions in the South and early year culling in the Midwest and North. The increase in the cow supply allowed packers to purchase cows at lower prices all week. The increase in offerings across the country pushed the lean boneless processing beef weighted average lower than the previous week for the first time since the week ending November 4, 2005. Fast food demand was light to moderate compared to the previous week as the holiday shopping season is over. Retail demand began picking up as retailers began putting orders together for Super Bowl parties. Offerings on lower lean cow products increased due to a higher number of fleshier cows in the Midwest and North while steer/heifer product continued to be at a premium. Import lean boneless beef generally steady with some firmness noted on higher lean percentage items. Trading on spot delivery product moderate while out-front market activity was slow. Demand was light to moderate on light offerings for spot delivery product. Out-front demand was light, especially for March. Cow cuts for the week were unevenly steady. Trading on 100% lean items was slow to moderate this week at weak to mostly lower levels except for eye of rounds trading firm.
  
Lean boneless beef 92-94% 0.50-2.00 lower; 90% mostly 2.00-4.00 lower; 85% 0.50-1.50 lower; 81% not established; 75% steady to 1.00 lower; 73% not established; 65% 0.50-3.00 higher. 100% inside rounds and flat/eyes weak to lower; outside rounds, striploins, and S.P.B’s sharply lower; eye of round firm.

The Cutter cow carcass gross cut out value for Thursday, January 12, 2005 was estimated at 104.38 per cwt, down 3.27 from last Friday.

Source: USDA/ AMS, Jan. 13, 2006
Source URL: http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/NW_LS850.txt